LEADERSHIP: THE BLACK SWAN STRATEGY

Published: 2010-04-15   please add a comment below

Black swans don’t exist; only white ones. Or, that was the belief until European explorers found some swimming happily in Australia, that land of strange animals and even stranger people! John Stuart Mill picked up the conceptual possibilities in such evidence: the non-existent actually existing. And, Nassim Nicholas Taleb is the latest to popularise the implications of an unknown unknown coming to be known. And, one hopes Donald Rumsfeld has bought a copy of his book, The Black Swan. It might have helped.

No-one (at least no-one running America) envisaged 9/11. And, we can all think of examples of things in our own life that didn’t exist and then suddenly changed our world: the transistor radio (for those of us old enough), the net, the MP3 player. Unknown, then indispensable.

But what does this mean for you as a leader? Another bestseller to buy and hope to read one day? Or, a concept to build into your thinking: about market developments, your new products or services, and other strategic issues? Perhaps, the play of chance in your own career?

It’s probably all of these. But for me, it particularly means widening my line of sight. Using peripheral vision as well, not just seeing the road ahead. I’m in the process of developing a new business: so what might a black swan look like? A discontinuity in technology that knocks me out? A competitor with a better or cheaper offering? Perhaps some plain bad luck: an accident, a dud employee or chance mistake that undermines my well laid plans.

Black swans are not what you plan for – except in the sense of contemplating their possibility and keeping alert for warnings or better sightings. And, in my career as a consultant over several decades, I’ve seen some cygnets the foxes got before they turned into swans; and some that flourished and changed a client’s world. And, mine!

As a result, in my online Leadership Action Planning tool, I’ve made provision for this broader thinking – and actions you might take. To monitor and shape change in your business environment, and prepare for external shocks. Give it a go: in an hour, you can have a printable plan of personal leadership action commitments. Something to get on with and build your business – but mindful that we all meet a few black swans in our careers.

Dr. Timothy Pascoe AM
PhD (Cambridge), MBA (Harvard), BE & BEc (Adelaide)
Creator, V|E|C|T|O|R Leadership^®